The Curious case of Arsenal FC

Why other teams have won the Premier League and Arsenal have not.

**How do you win the Premier League?**

Arsenal has failed to win the Premier League since 2003-04. Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea and remarkably Leicester City have all won the League since then. What were these teams able to do which Arsenal hasn’t? I’ve analysed every title winning team since 2010 to see what does it actually take to win the Premier League.

**A)  Great Home Record:**

* Leicester lost 1 home game in 2015/16 in the PL
* Chelsea unbeaten at home in 2014/15 in the PL
* Man City lost 1 home game in 2013/14 in the PL
* Man Utd won 16 out 19 home games in 2012/13 in the PL
* Man City unbeaten at home in 2011/12 in the PL
* Man Utd unbeaten at home in 2010/11 in the PL
* Chelsea lost 1 game at home in 2009/10 in the PL

Between 2009-10 and 2015-16, Arsenal’s best home records have been:

Season | Games | Win |Draw| Loss| Points
Season    |  P  |  W | D | L | Points
2009/10  | 19 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 47
2013/14  | 19 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 44
2014/15  | 19 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 41
2011/12  | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 40
2015/16  | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 40
2012/13  | 19 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 38
2010/11  | 19 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 37

With a slight outlier of Man Utd in 2012/13 losing 3 games at home (had no draws, and won the other 16 games) the most allowable home losses seems to be 1 game per season. Arsenal has achieved this only once in 2013/14. In 2009/10, Arsenal had 15 wins and 47 points at home, a feat that they haven’t managed since.

An almost flawless home record seems to be a reoccurring factor in Premier League winners with no real exceptions. Arsenal are not weak at home but losing more than 2 games at home is already too much considering even the big teams are likely to lose more than 2 games away from home during the season.

Arsenal have already lost 2 games at home in the 2016/17 already and with 6 home games left to go, they seem to be on track for roughly 40 home points again.

If Arsenal wants to launch a proper title challenge, the home record must improve. One home loss or less in a season and the title should become far more attainable.

**B) More than one Prolific Goal-scorer**

Since 2009/10, every title winning team has had more than one player that capable of scoring goals regularly. The trend seems to be one prolific player who scores over 20 goals for the season, with the second supporting player hovering around 12-17 goals. 

Season | Players| Goals | Team
---|---|----|----
2015/16| Jamie Vardy & Riyad Mahrez  | 24 & 17| Leicester
2014/15| Diego Costa & Eden Hazard | 20 & 14 | Chelsea
2013/14| Yaya Touré & Sergio Agüero| 20 & 17| Man City
2012/13 | Robin van Persie & Wayne Rooney | 26 & 12 | Man Utd
2011/12| Sergio Agüero & Edin Dzeko| 23 & 14| Man City
2010/11| Dimitar Berbatov & Javier Hernandez | 20 & 13 | Man Utd
2009/10| Didier Drogba & Frank Lampard| 29 & 22 | Chelsea

**Average for Leading Scorer: 23.1 goals per season**

**Average for Secondary Scorer: 15.6 goals per season**

This demonstrates that more than one regular goal scorer is needed for a team to win the Premier League. Arsenal have skirted around this for years. Van Persie had a 30 goal season in 2011/12 but the closest scorers behind him were Walcott and Bendtner on 8 goals each.

Alexis Sanchez should be the ideal secondary goal scorer. He should play the role of Mahrez with Leicester, and Hazard with Chelsea but instead he is forced to play the role of key goal scorer due to a lack of scoring support. Giroud offers as many goals as Sanchez, but not over 20 goals a season. I understand that it’s beginning to sound like a broken record, but this shows quite conclusively that Arsenal need a true goalscorer. A goal scorer that Sanchez could support with 13-16 goals per season and a striker that Özil could feed. It is a key and crucial missing component.

**C) Bouncing Back**

Only once between 2009/10 and 2015/16 has the PL Champion lost back-to-back games. (Manchester United: 1-2 Chelsea (A) 1-3 Liverpool (A) 2010/11 Season)

Teams that end up being champions do not string poor results together. Every title winning side between 2009/10 and 2015/16 has lost multiple games but they are spread out and after they lose, they win the next game over 75% of the time.

Arsenal on the other hand has had 1 seasons out of the past 7 where they have not lost consecutive games: 2013/14

Arsenal needs to get better at bouncing straight back from a poor performance and not bad results together. As it currently stands in the Premier League, Arsenal have lost 3 out of their past 4 games, so this season looks to be fitting right in line with the others.

**Conclusion**

This is certainly not EVERYTHING needed to win but just a few areas where Arsenal seem to be falling behind the teams that do end up winning the league.
Obviously there are other factors involved, especially fitness, injuries, and other unforeseeable circumstances that can affect the outcome of future games.

The key shortcomings of Arsenal are: good home form, more than one regular goal scorer and resilience in bouncing back from a poor performance.

Some of these are predominantly managerial problems and others are predominantly player problems. Either way, if things stay how they currently are, the situation doesn’t look like improving anytime soon.